Friday, February 17, 2012

NO Real Estate Bubble ! Says Macquarie's Capital , Steve Harris ....

More comments from the experts; it seems that the forecast from this group is the same as the Team here at Re/Max West and BoltonTownHomes. We are looking to see 5% percent growth for the next number of years,with inflation running just shy of the historic average of 3%.Have a look at the article below and you can see the Australian market has had a small correction, but in general the home owners are not affected buy a slight downturn. Also , when buying and selling in the same market , the influence of softer prices is net neutral. Have a look , tell us your thoughts. Click or cut and paste the link into your address bar to see the full story,thanks to BNN !

All the Best, Ian Amos  www.IanAmos.ca

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/2/16/Real-estate-talk-too-bearish-Macquarie.aspx
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Canadians have real estate on the brain. Recently, some of the country's high profile bank executives and economists have been debating whether the country is in the midst of a bubble.
But Steve Harris, Head of Research and Canadian Equity Strategist at Macquarie Capital Markets, says much of this talk has been far too bearish.
"We think prices are elevated, but we don't see any catalysts to push prices lower -- not until the Bank of Canada starts raising rates," he says. "We think we can see a continued gain of about a 5 percent annualized through 2012 and into 2013. And if we start to get a rate tightening cycle as we get into the second half of 2013, then it will be 2014 until we actually see any decline in prices."
Harris also says that comparing Canada's real estate market to the U.S. is misguided.
"That's the wrong model to be looking at…I think a much better model is to look at what happened in Australia," he says.
"Canadian and Australian home prices have moved lock-step for the past decade and they diverged just in the last year. Arguably Australian home prices got to as high a level relative to historical norms as the U.S. did, but the correction was much milder -- it's only been about 5 percent. And the reason they had that correction over the last year is they had a tightening cycle where rates rose by 175 basis points."

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